Jul 28 2008
Brazen predictions for BYU football in 2008
This is by far my favorite article of the season to write. We’re about a week away from the start of fall camp and rivalry banter is already coming out at the office. I’m geeked, you’re geeked, August can’t go fast enough.
Before I get to my predictions for this year, it’s time to own up to my predictions for last year.
- Brandon Bradley will emerge as a star at field corner - Well, I was a year off. I’ll take the liberty of recycling this one for ‘08.
- BYU’s defense will do a dang good imitation of last year - Ding! BYU finished the 2007 season with strikingly similar numbers in total defense (307.8 ypg in ‘07 to 319.2 ypg in ‘06), scoring defense (18.5 ppg in ‘07 to 14.7 ppg in ‘06). Both pass defenses finished within 5 ypg of each other (slight edge to ‘06). Only the rush defense was meaningfully better in ‘07 (97.5 ypg to 114.1 ypg).
- Max Hall will pass for over 3,000 yards this season - Comfortably. Hall threw for 3,848 yards and 26 touchdowns. As a sophomore. Remember how some people thought Hall wouldn’t even beat out Cade Cooper for the starting job?
- BYU will win AT LEAST 11 regular season games and run the table again in the Mountain West Conference - Close…but no Snickers. Fortunately, the early losses that cost me a “Ding!” at UCLA and Tulsa motivated BYU to another 11-win season. I’ll take a diminished “ding” for the perfect MWC record.
Now, I took some mild heat for some of the things I predicted last year. I hope I’ve earned a little lenience this time around, because I’m going to push the envelope again. And I won’t even use “BYU will go undefeated this year,” because I already predicted BYU’s undefeated season. A couple of finger stretches and here we go:
- Brandon Bradley will be the starting boundary corner on August 30th - There has been some heated discussion on boards lately about the battle between Bradley and Scott Johnson for the starting job. I’m all for Scott Johnson proving me wrong and locking down the starting job by consistently performing throughout the season. I just don’t think it’s going to happen. Word in spring ball was that Johnson was making lots of plays. Word also was that nobody on the 2nd team offense even challenged Bradley on his side of the field. If that kind of intimidation transfers over to running with the 1’s, we should see some great defense this year from Brandon Bradley.
- BYU’s offense will lead the nation in scoring - BYU lost field general Manase Tonga. There are some tough defenses on the schedule. There are some pretty prolific offenses throughout the nation. Hall could go down with an injury. All true. Setting aside injury speculation, this offense should be toying with opponents the way the 80s teams used to, except that the quality of conference opposition is arguably better than it was in the 80s, especially the Utes.
- BYU’s defense will finish top-10 in scoring defense again this year - Many of the players on BYU’s defense are inexperienced but talented. However, this has as much to do with the fact that most offenses on BYU’s schedule lack a good signal caller. Jake Locker of Washington and Brian Johnson of Utah are the only really good QBs that BYU will face outside of a big-time bowl game. The next best would be either Donovan Porterie of New Mexico or UCLA’s Ben Olson, if he plays with any consistency. That’s a pretty big dropoff from second to third, wouldn’t you say? BYU shouldn’t have too much trouble keeping teams under 20 points this year.
- Jan Jorgensen will win the conference’s Defensive Player of the Year award - Jorgensen is obviously talented enough that this could happen. Even though BYU’s defensive scheme is so conservative and shies away from the high-risk, high-reward type plays that showcase individual talent, Jorgensen has a great chance to shine this year because of his ‘mates on the D-line. The depth, talent and experience of the defensive line this coming season will be greater than either of the past two years. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him still drawing regular double-teams (probably beating a lot of them like last year). However, Tialavea’s ability to collapse a pocket up the middle and the combo of Dulan/Denney coming on the other edge will only increase the pressure on offensive lines. The only question is, will the linebackers and secondary be good enough in pass coverage to give the front three time to break the O-line down?
9 Responses to “Brazen predictions for BYU football in 2008”
The defensive line has me intrigued due to he return of Tialivea and the additions of Tevita Hola and Bernard Afutiti.
The inexperience on the defense is the only thing that has me worried, but their atheleticism(with te exception of Scott Johnson) has me excited.
I agree with most, but do not think that the BYU defense can be top 10 nationally. I do think they will be very good but top 10 would be a huge accomplishment if that can be done.
The brazen-ness definitely comes out, but for your boldness, Josh, I say: Good on ya, mate! I remember the debates last preseason and I’m sure they will heat up again for your pushing the envelope yet again, but this time next year I believe everyone will see your consistency lending to your credibility.
BYU may not have a top ten defense in total defense due to Mendenhall’s defensive philosophy of bend don’t break/keep the offense in front of you, etc., but the key word is SCORING defense. With BYU’s conference schedule, the Cougars are always within reach of a top ten scoring defense (see lack of potent signal callers on the schedule referenced above). Josh’s argument for this prediction is pretty sound. To add a point of my own, though not all that original, BYU’s defensive philosophy will yield better results this year than last year due to an improved kicking game this season. We don’t know if Mitch Payne is going to keep the starting position or not, but he can’t do any worse than his injury plagued season last year. When the opposing offenses have to drive the whole length of the field more often, they will find the end zone less often.
Doh! No editing comments anymore? I was going to add that to see BYU lead the nation in scoring would be an awesome feeling. What other offenses have a chance to put up the big numbers this season?
A Top 20 Defense isn’t too much to ask.
Great job on last year’s predictions, Josh! Let’s hope your right on again with this year’s. Here are my thoughts:
1. Disagree for two reasons. (A) I think Scott Johnson is vastly underrated. We’ll see for sure in the first game, but I think he’ll start over Bradley for the first game. I agree that Bradley is the better athlete, but Johnson’s understanding of the system is leaps and bounds ahead at this stage. I do think Bradley will show great in relief time during the season. And (B) Johnson and Bradley don’t play Field Corner, but Boundary Corner.
2. It’s definitely a possibility with the guns we have returning on offense. I hope you’re right. Even though this is your most gutsy prediction yet, I’m actually going to agree.
3. Agree. Patrick made a good point. This Defense may not finish in the top 10 in yardage allowed, but I think will once again be Top 10 in Scoring Defense. Can you image what will happen if #2 and #3 come true? Those two combined give a team a great chance to win every ball game.
4. Agree. I can’t even believe he wasn’t picked as MWC Pre-season DPOY. He’ll prove everyone wrong and may even walk away with a few national awards to boot.
Your Bradley prediction is off. He’s not even in the two deep for field corner. G Pittman is pushing Brandon Howard for the field corner position. Bradley is trying to get Scott Johnson’s spot as boundary corner.
Dangit. I originally had written “boundary corner” for Bradley, but something I read made me second guess that and I ended up changing it. I’ll fix that in the article.
As for #3, I already specified “scoring defense” as the top-10 ranking for the defense. I didn’t even have to change it just now and fake like I knew what I was talking about in the first place.
I agree that BYU’s offense will rule, but I am not sure they will lead the nation in scoring. Texas Tech also returns its total offense and they score a lot of points.