Jul 04 2008
3 Reasons BYU Football Will Go Undefeated in 2008 (and 3 Reasons They Won’t)
Hey everybody! It feels pretty good to get back in the saddle, so let’s ride!
Despite the fact that Cougar Legion has been in hibernation, this summer has heard much more buzz surrounding BYU football than just about any in the program’s history. Let’s just get it out in the open: BYU fans expect the team to go undefeated this year. Will they? Let’s examine:
Yes: Even with the loss of Manase Tonga to academic ineligibility, BYU’s offense is as stacked as it’s ever been. I don’t even dare to guess how many passing yards Max Hall will put up this year, how many touchdown passes. Unga should crack 1,000 on the ground for the second straight year (remember that he didn’t even get significant carries until the third game of the season at Tulsa). The receiving corp stands shoulder-to-shoulder with just about any other in BYU’s history. Even if the defense turns out to be mediocre this season (probably not going to be the case), who’s going to outscore this Cougar offense, hm?
No: I won’t say the word and put a hex on the whole season, but we all know that there are certain positions where BYU lacks the depth to absorb losses and keep on chugging. Please knock on wood right now.
Yes: The schedule. Some may disagree with me about this, but there aren’t many tests for a full-strength BYU squad on the schedule. I’ve got UCLA and Utah as the only meaningful tests of BYU’s quality, with Utah being the tougher of the two games.
The only potentially potent offense on the schedule is Utah. BYU’s young defense might have had an early test with UCLA, but the Bruins were decimated by injuries in spring practice (two quarterbacks, three offensive linemen). The back seven has plenty of time to grow up in time for a winner-take-all showdown with the Utes in November.
It’s certainly a tougher schedule than Hawaii’s from last year (gratefully), but a team as good as BYU going undefeated with that schedule will not be a shocker.
No: That word again. Knock.
Yes: I think something happened to the BYU football program after the Las Vegas Bowl last December. BYU played awful in that game. They had no business winning it. Yet, they made a play at the end and won. This was a great blessing for the Cougars for two reasons:
- It signaled, in my opinion, the official return of BYU as a national football presence. Really good football programs win games that they don’t deserve to win.
- It left the players humble and hungry. A lot of guys knew they stunk out the joint. They still have a lot to prove, and that’s good. They’ll need to remember that feeling if they get to 8-0 or 9-0 and the media starts showering them with praise.
No: Every game the Cougars win will only add to the already growing BCS talk. Can the players shut it out and stay focused as the season goes on? Let’s face it–Cougar fans are already working themselves into a lather over the possibility of a trip to the Fiesta Bowl. It’s going to be tough on the team.
Do I think BYU will go undefeated in 2008? I’ll go along with ESPN’s Mark Schlabach on this one and say yes.
57 days and counting…
23 Responses to “3 Reasons BYU Football Will Go Undefeated in 2008 (and 3 Reasons They Won’t)”
Only one thing - I just don’t see UCLA at home being a tougher matchup than UW on the road.
UCLA is in disarray on the offensive line, implementing a new offense, and fielding a QB with crushed confidence in front of a crowd he dreads to play for.
I see UCLA’s offense having serious problems in Provo. In the meantime, Jake Locker is exactly the type of QB threat who can hurt us badly in spite of being a below average passer. And homefield advtange goes a long way in Seattle.
I think UCLA is a 90/10 safe win. UW is more like 60/40. Utah I’m putting as our most difficult at 50/50
Stuart, I agree with you about Jake Locker. He’s one of the most athletic and promising young quarterbacks in the nation, no question. His scrambling ability could keep drives alive that otherwise would stall. Our D will have to contain him or it will be tough. I question, though, whether Locker has enough offensive talent around him to keep pace with our offense. I don’t think that U-Dub’s defense is going to be near good enough to slow down our O.
UCLA’s defense is my concern. The Cougar offense had two cracks at them last year and digressed from game 1 to game 2, in my opinion. Karl Dorrell has earned my absolute respect as a defensive strategist and that has me a lot more worried that Jake Locker does.
Hmm. Stuart, have you ever heard of Norm Chow? Do you honestly think he won’t come to Provo with his best game plan? Now, I realize he can’t force talent into his players, but this is UCLA, these guys are already athletic. I hope the players don’t have your mentality going into that game or it could turn into a stinker. If BYU isn’t humble, isnt detemined EVERY SINGLE GAME, we’ll lose to either UCLA, Wash or (gulp) t.u.n. IF …. IF… BYU comes out 3-0, I believe their focus will be such that no one could beat them. I believe Bronco will keep them so focused it’ll almost hurt. Because while every team is wanting to beat us just because they want the W, we’ll have the greater desire and the greater talent.
No mention of TCU in the post or the comments. And I’m reading objective assessments, hmmmmm? Include New Mexico into the possibles. The MWC is not going to be as easy this year as it was last and the defense better mature fast or any dreams of an undeated season will go by the wayside early.
The toughest game on the schedule is @ Washington.
Are we already forgetting that the Washington Oline has been decimated as well? Jake Locker does scare me though. I just hope that Anae loosens up and opens the playbook.
Ok guys! I’m so excited about this year, and the possibilities!
:) (but if we dont just look at the game ahead of us……..we could be bitten! So its fun to talk now… but two weeks before the season the only thing we should be talking about is Northern Iowa…….. Any team on this schedule could beat us if were not thinkg about them!!!!!!!! GOOOOOOO Cougs!!
UCLA and Washington will be our toughest opponents this year. Back to back, both Pac-10, and we have a horrible overall record against UCLA and a shady road record over the past several years.
I’ll take UCLA at home over Washington on the road. We had better bring our A games in both instances.
DO NOT underestimate Northern Iowa… i read some place that they beat Iowa State last year…
After much waffling, I am officially going on the record as one of those fans predicting an undefeated season for the Cougs. There has been marked improvement each and every year since Bronco became head coach, and I think this year the Cougs will finally turn the corner and win the OOC games that have held us from an undefeated season the past two years.
Washington will be tough–Jake Locker is the real deal–but if and when we get past the Huskies it will be a sweet ride. It won’t be an easy road by any means, and we’ll have bring everything with us to RES to end the season, but I think we can do it.
TCU, by the way, is vastly overrated. I see them as a 7-5 team this year if they’re lucky.
And anyone playing us at home this year doesn’t have a prayer. Therefore, UCLA and UNM are right out.
I agree with the first commenter. UCLA will not be the first big test for us; UW will. As a matter of fact, if we beat UW, the only thing to keep us out of the BCS will be a loss at RES, which is by no means ever out of the picture. UW and the U are our two hurdles, and UW will be a much tougher one to clear.
Welcome back, Josh! Great writeup. Your #3 Yes reason is a great point that I haven’t seen anywhere else. Keep the good stuff coming.
Also, in response to Spencer, yes, that is the attitude that we want the team to have and that is what Bronco teaches. But we as fans are allowed to look at the season as a whole and make our assessments and predictions. We are not required to take one game at a time. I’m sure the coaching staff will have the players ready to go each week and play to the best of their ability. That seems to be a major focus of this program.
I’m a Detroit Tigers fan. That’s why I’m deathly afraid of what this season might bring. If you don’t follow, read further, and I’m sure you’ll see some similarities.
The Tigers were widely considered favorites in the national media to win the AL Central and possibly go to the World Series. They had a great offense that was upgraded significantly through off-season acquisitions. There were significant questions about pitching, but they were generally dismissed, with pundits and fans assuming the prolific offense would overcome the pitching staff’s weaknesses, and the Tigs would be fine.
This season, the offense has been middle-of-the-road in the American League. The pitching has been as bad, or worse, than expected. And the Tigers have had to go on a tear in interleague play just to get to .500 by the All-Star break.
That’s why all of this hype for the Cougs both excites and terrifies me. There are a thousand reasons why the Cougars should go undefeated this year and go to the Fiesta Bowl. But sports are weird… the games are played on the field, not in the press and on blogs. And there’s so much that can go wrong out of the field.
I’m cautiously optimistic about this year, but have these tiger-striped psychological scars that keep me from being more confident about BYU’s chances.
Joel beat me to it. I think perhaps the biggest challenge for BYU this year will be handling all the hype. The national hype BYU is receiving is unprecedented - at least in this era - for players and coaches alike. They will have to work to stay focused and grounded while at the same time remembering to stay loose and not play tight despite the fact that there is no room for error if they want to accomplish their goal. The mental challenge will be more difficult for BYU than it has been for most of the previous “BCS busters” since most of those schools didn’t receive such extensive hype so early on in the season (let alone before the season even began). BYU has already been designated as the official BCS darling.
I thinik BYU’s season will hinge on their mental preparation from week to week, whether or not the defense rises to the occassion, and a little luck here & there (especially in avoiding key injuries). Luck may be more important than one might think considering BYU could have easily been 9-4 last season (Utah & UCLA). On the other hand, they were just a few stops/scores away from 13-0.
Regardless, this will be a fun season. The most exciting thing is BYU may still be a season removed from having their best team. If they can crack the BCS this year and grow accustomed to the hype and playing on a big stage, it will be great preparation for 2009 when they could be considered as a contender for the national championship.
So Josh, I knocked on wood as insructed. Is it a problem that it was the wood-grained plastic veneer on my table?
Jason’s comment on this year being prelude to next year got me wondering, if BYU and in particular Max Hall have great years this year, is there any thought he would Luke BYU and opt for the NFL draft?
I have wondered that myself, but QBs at BYU seem to stick around until graduation (although I recognize this is a different era where everyone seems to go pro as early as possible) and Hall’s 7 month mission won’t bring up the age concern that John Beck has had to face. And, if things do shape up for BYU to have a legitimate shot at a national championship next year, it would be almost a guarantee he will stick around. He said in one of his first press conferences that his goal was to win a national championship.
If all else fails, hopefully Trent Plaisted will end up being convincing enough for all BYU players to stick around - especially those who aren’t even consistent at the collegiate level.
P.S. - Greg Wrubell mysteriously posted this on Cougartracks shortly after my post on Cougarlegion: “So, the way it’s shaping up, BYU may not “peak” until next season.” (http://www.ksl.com/index.php?nid=498&sid=3714076). I think he is getting his material from cougarlegion!
One of you is really Wrubell I know it!
Its nice to see the “legionnaires” back in action.
To nurse me along till August 30th, I have been recording and watching classic BYU games, on BYU-TV. Here are three upcoming games.
July 12 @ 6:00 AM
Football - Byu Vs Colorado (1988 Freedom Bowl)
July 16 @ 8:30 PM
Football- Tulsa vs. BYU (2006)
July 23 @ 8:30 PM
Football- Utah St. vs. BYU (2006)
I’ve enjoyed watching some of the great games from the past. I find myself comparing those teams with the current team. I really like the product that Bronco is placing on the field.
Here is the link for BYU-TV, and their list of classic games.
http://www.byub.org/sports/
Three comments on the discussion above:
1 - TOUGHEST MATCHUP
I’ll say it here: our toughest matchup is an out-of-conference away game until Bronco and the team prove otherwise. This means Washington is the toughest game on the schedule at this point. Some may say that @ Utah State (the other OOC away game for 2008) is a lock to break the streak, but they’re probably the same people who said the same thing about last year’s Tulsa game.
2 - HALL LEAVING EARLY
First, I like Hall and think he’s a good fit for our system. However, I think it’s very unrealistic to think the NFL will be beating down the door for a smallish, “gutsy” playmaker-type QB who puts up good numbers in a non-BCS conference. He’s listed at 6′1″, 201 lbs., which by my eyes is very generous. Colt Brennan (taller and heavier) destroyed the stat sheets in a non-BCS league, was a top-six Heisman finisher twice, and he was drafted in the sixth round after his senior year. Staley is a poor comparison to Hall. Staley was a Doak Walker winner with NFL size and speed. Injuries did him in, not a lack of pro-level tools.
3 - UCLA GAME
Stuart, are you serious with your 90% chance of victory over UCLA? They have top-level talent, which is the biggest key to success in college football. They have a defensive coordinator (Walker) who has Anae all but figured out. Chow is one of the best in the country and may have an ax to grind. Sure, they have some injury problems and are playing here. I know we have a good team, and I like our chances. But 90%? Wow…
First, good to have you back. A commenter mentioned above about New Mexico who should be improved being a potential tough game, that is the case but it is in Provo and lets face it BYU does not lose at home.
TCU at least deserved a mentioned for one it is on the road and TCU historically is a great team and rarely has two subpar years in a row.
Also playing Washington on the road WILL be difficult and should not be taken lightly at all.
Finally until BYU can win a non conference road game I will not be convinced they are the real deal. They have not won a road non conference game since 2002 against Utah State, but that does not really count. The last legit opponent BYU won on the road in a non conference was against Cal in 2001.
Winning all our regular season games is only half the battle. If we do this, we will face our toughest opponent in 2008, in a BCS bowl. Only by beating them will we go undefeated.
We’ll be losing most of our starting O-line next year, but our defense will be more experienced, not to mention Hall, Pitta, Collie and Unga with another year under their belts. I think we’ll be in a good position to do well this year, and build upon it next year.
Tulsa compared to Utah State is ridiculous. Utah State was 2 and 10 in ‘07, (and 1-11 in ‘06) Tulsa won 10 games in ‘07. We could play 9 of our second string on both sides of the ball against the Aggies (what’s an Aggie?) and win. We might have a tougher time against northern Iowa.
I think it’s funny how the last line of Jason’s post was “One of you is Wrubell I know it!” and the next poster was “Greg”.
It’s good to be back!
First, coaches win college football games.
Both Washington and UCLA have exceptional coaches! I still believe we will win these, but they will be no cake walk.
I still believe that Utah will be the toughest game.
So does Phil Steele
Great to have you back!
This is only mildly related to BYU football, but as Bill Cosby once said… “I love to see Jose Canseco get a beatin’!”
http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/2008/07/12/2008-07-12_jose_canseco_gets_bashed_in_attempt_to_m.html?page=0
Coaches win games?
Steve Spurrier:
1) 12 years in SEC with Florida, never fewer than 9 wins in a season, 1996 national championship
2) 3 years in SEC with South Carolina, zero 9-win seasons
Dennis Erickson:
1) 6 years at Miami, never fewer than 9 wins, two national championships
2) Coach of 2006 Idaho Vandals, 4-8 record
3) Coach of 2007 ASU Sun Devils, 10-3 record
John Robinson:
1)11 years at USC, 104-35-4, 1978 national championship
2) 6 years at UNLV, 28-42-0
I don’t deny that some good coaches seem to win wherever they go (Bobby Bowden, Urban Meyer, Jim Tressel), but it’s more nuanced than that. The best coach in the country can’t suit up and make plays. I loved the 2007 Fiesta Bowl with Oklahoma and Boise State, but Oklahoma wins that game 9 out of 10 times.
Talent on the field isn’t a guarantee of success, but it’s the biggest piece of the puzzle.