Nov 27 2007
Crunching the Numbers: BYU @ San Diego State
Max Hall is nursing a grade-3 sprain in his throwing shoulder and is in desperate need of rest. San Diego State’s porous rush defense has come along at just the right time…
BYU Defense vs. SDSU Offense
BYU Scoring D: #9 - 18.0 ppg
BYU Total D: #9 - 302.73 ypg
BYU Passing D: #30 - 208.45 ypg
BYU Rushing D: #9 - 94.3 ypg
SDSU Scoring O: #78 - 24.91 ppg
SDSU Total O: #71 - 378.45 ypg
SDSU Passing O: #29 - 271.3 ypg
SDSU Rushing O: #106 - 107.18 ypg
I’m not going to sugarcoat it - SDSU is a bad offensive football team (bad defense, too, but we’re not there yet). The Aztecs leading rusher is their senior QB, Kevin O’Connell (365 yards on 117 attempts). No running back on that team has even 100 carries this season (senior Brandon Bornes has 88 for 323 yards). For BYU’s defense, the task is simple: go get O’Connell. SDSU relies almost completely on O’Connell to generate their offense. Of SDSU’s 736 total plays this season, O’Connell has either passed or rushed on 501 of them (68.1%). In contrast, Max Hall has only passed or rushed on 480 of BYU’s 855 plays (56%).
San Diego State’s passing game presents a decent challenge for BYU’s secondary, as the Aztecs feature a couple of senior receivers with big-play capability. Brett Swain (48 catches, 875 yards, 18.23 avg) and Chaz Schilens (27 catches, 573 yards, 21.22 avg) are both capable of picking up big chunks of yards if the defense gives them a window to make a play. BYU’s conservative defensive philosophy will likely limit the opportunity for long scoring strikes, but the defense won’t be able to mail in any plays and expect to get off the field without yielding points. With receivers averaging that kind of yardage per catch, even third-and-long situations won’t be easy stops. Don’t get me wrong, though - BYU’s defense is more than up to the task if they play well and play hard, especially since the Aztecs don’t have much of a ground game to accompany their passing attack.
BYU Offense vs. SDSU Defense
BYU Scoring O: #48 - 29.64 ppg
BYU Total O: #20 - 450.27 ypg
BYU Passing O: #11 - 311.0 ypg
BYU Rushing O: #75 - 139.27 ypg
SDSU Scoring D: #98 - 33.2 ppg
SDSU Total D: #114 - 494.55 ypg
SDSU Passing D: #95(t) - 259.36 ypg
SDSU Rushing D: #117 - 235.2 ypg
You know, the funny thing about writing this particular article is that I’d like to really dig in to find some hidden gems of statistical significance, but this week it’s all on the surface. SDSU is one of the worst defensive teams in the nation, period. Max Hall is injured, but BYU doesn’t need him this week. Saturday should be the Harvey Unga Show against the 3rd worst rush defense in the nation. Manase Tonga could conceivably rush for 100 yards in this game as well. Here’s a “Wow” stat for you: in their last three games, San Diego State has yielded 1,220 rushing yards at an average of 6.7 yards per carry (amazingly, they won one of those games - @ UNLV - after giving up 275 rushing yards). They let Air Force run wild for 569 yards at nearly 9 yards per carry. BYU should be able to run the ball 55+ times this week to control the clock and make the game manageable for Hall (if he plays) and Brenden Gaskins.
Turnover margin appears to have little relevance in this game, as SDSU boasts a +6 while BYU has a -6. While Unga did fumble last week against Utah, I fully expect that if BYU relies on the running game, SDSU will lose any real chance of forcing turnovers and scoring on short fields to stay in the game.
BYU 31 - SDSU 10
7 Responses to “Crunching the Numbers: BYU @ San Diego State”
We have heard over the course of the season that BYU focuses more on what they can do/want to do. Earlier in the season when they faced CSU who at the time had the #115 rush defense BYU went all out through the air with 22 completions for 355 yards and 3 touchdowns. I think BYU really looks at what they do well rather than what the other team does poorly. That being said, this situation could be drastically different with Hall injured. He will likely play most of the game, mostly giving the ball to Unga/Tonga/Semanoff and occasionally throwing short passes to keep the defense honest. I think Harvey has another 150+ rushing performance and 200 total yards.
Josh- I can’r believe that I am only the 2nd post after Peter in 24 hours…have all your website visitors gone south after the Utah game? I know I am playing the devil’s advacate but I believe you contradicted yourself be saying, “I’m not going to sugarcoat it - SDSU is a bad offensive football team…” and then later say, “San Diego State’s passing game presents a decent challenge for BYU’s secondary…but the defense won’t be able to mail in any plays and expect to get off the field without yielding points.” I believe your second take but not your first. S.D. St. is playing much better recently than they were during the first part of the season. I did some studying myself and this is what I came up with (I took their last four games & compared them to us):
1. We scored 27 points at home against TCU & they scored 33 at home (they were up 17-0 at the end of the 1st Qtr)
2. We scored 31 at home against AF & they scored 22 at AF
3. We scored 24 against UNLV at UNLV & they scored 38 at UNLV
4. We scored 27 against Wyoming at Wyoming & they scored 35 at home
5. Total points scored: BYU 117 & S.D. St. 120
Yep, your 2nd take was correct…they are dangerous and can score on us. If we are not careful and come flat they could very easily beat us at home on their last game for their seniors!
Hm, it does look like I contradicted myself. The truth is that I have no idea if I contradicted myself or not, because SDSU has NO running game. Literally, they can’t run the ball on anybody. The problem is that I haven’t seen them play to explain how they are racking up points on teams, at least more than BYU is.
They have a senior QB and that counts for a lot. BYU gets everybody’s best game and that factors in as well. That’s how you see teams like UNLV and TCU, who are so up and down, really bringing it for BYU and letting down somewhat against the Aztecs. None of this is quantifiable and, thus, somewhat weak, but it’s all I’ve got at the moment. If I had a couple of days and about $2K for my wife to go shopping so she wouldn’t hate me for blowing off everything but sports, I could probably figure it out in more concrete terms.
Josh- Its not a big deal so let us do some crunching for you so you can go back to work & earn the $2K for your wife for Christmas. Coach Mendenhall has said time & again that the most important thing for him is the number of points scored and scored against us. Based on that, S.D. State is very dangerous because they rank 2nd to us in points scored. Here are a few stats (Conference only) that point out how good their offense is (Coach Long was a good QB):
1. Scoring Offense: BYU 1 & SD 4
2. Passing Offense: BYU 1 & SD 2
3. Total offense: BYU 1 & SD 6
4. Passing Efficiency: BYU 1 & SD 3
5. Red Zone Offense: BYU 3 & SD 1
6. Field Goals: BYU 7 & SD 1
7. Time of possession: BYU 1 & SD 9
And of course you already pointed out how many yards per catch their receivers have.
By the way, you only showed our offense vs their defense but not their offense vs our defense???
Walt,
SDSU offense vs BYU defense is at the top of the article.
Peter- I apologize…my bad. But, I think that how the stats stack up in conference and more particularly the last four gamesis more relevant and the comparisons I made show that SD’s passing offense matches up well with our defense. We are definitely stronger against the run than the pass and they don’t run but pass well so it’s their strength against our weakness. At any rate, all voters’ (AP, Coach’s, Harris, etc.) eyes are on us to see how well we do in order to justify moving us ip in the polls. This is not a week to rest starters in the 3rd & 4th quarters because the key to moving up is the margin of victory and why rest the starters anyway…the next game will be on Dec 22, a full three weeks after Saturday’s game.
Peter- I apologize…my bad. But, I think my comparisons are more relevant because they are the last four games and conference play only. SD is dangerous even w/o a running game. Passing is Coach Long’s forte and his offense is finally coming around. TCU’s defense is not shabby at all and they scored 33 points at home against them and we scored only 27 so that is relevant. I am not worried about losing the game, I am worried about not winning by enough and Coach Mendenhall is prone to not run up the score. Only time will tell.