I am a self-proclaimed huge fan of Bronco Mendenhall’s overall recruiting strategy. Target the players that fit the programs needs and offer ‘em as juniors. Get ‘em on board. Get ‘em focused. I like it.

BYU’s most recent recruiting move, however, got me to raise an eyebrow. The risks inherent in BYU’s strategy are big enough when offering players during their junior seasons. Career ending injuries can come into play, sometimes kids flame out during their senior season, or who knows what else can happen. To say that offering a scholarship to a yet-to-be junior is a risky move is understating things a bit. Adam Timo, running back/quarterback/great athlete, from St. George is a great talent, no doubt about it. I definitely want him to play for the Cougars when his time comes. That’s not the issue at all.

The issue is that the Cougars are asking very young men–OK, boys–to commit to a decision that takes effect 2 years in the future based on their current circumstances. Maybe most of these guys will be true to their word and sign with the Cougs in 2009. Odds are that some of these guys are going to get some intense attention from big-time schools like USC, Oregon, Texas, etc., and are going to waver. BYU can’t afford to push the envelope too much by tying up scholarships offered to sophomores when some of these guys might bail the day before National Signing Day and leave BYU high and dry.

The flip side of this issue is that nobody can get inside the personal conversations between Adams and BYU’s coaches. Odds are that the coaches made a very calculated decision on this particular player because of his skills and character. I just don’t want to see the practice of recruiting sophomores get out of hand and end up biting BYU in the butt at a time when BYU should have all the momentum in the world.

On September 22nd the Falcons are coming to town with their new-fangled offense and a new coach for the first time since the Declaration of Independence was signed. Will BYU be able to contain this new attack?

Yup.

The new offense will just not work for Air Force. Now, I greatly respect the cadets and Air Force as a team. No team steps it up in the 4th quarter better than them. That being said, their current roster just won’t support the type of offense being installed. Carney, while being a pretty good QB, won’t see the type of success many are expecting him to have when he is “unleashed” by this new offense.

Last year against BYU Carney had a pass efficiency rating of 22. Air Force was ranked 118 of 119 D-1 teams in passing. Unlike the first games Air Force plays, BYU will have tape on the new scheme and be able to plan for it. Carney benefited last year from a run-offense. If the defense is expecting a run every single play, when you finally do throw it catches them offguard. Last season, Air Force ran the ball 660 times and put it in the air 112 times. Interestingly enough, they only scored 22 TDs on the ground (BYU ran the ball 437 times and put it in the endzone 27 times.) With a 6/1 ratio of run to pass, the defense cheats up so the DB’s can help with the run, particularly in defending against the option. This year, however, with operating out of the shotgun, BYU will be able to sit back a little more and keep Carney’s rating to sub-100, you heard it hear first.

By Air Force fans’ own admission, the offensive line may be a weak point with inexperience. Due to the conditioning required as a cadet, most of the linemen are unable to keep up their weight and they only have a couple over 300 lbs. Essentially the BYU front three will be as big as the guys they go against. BYU returns 3 starters on the defensive line and a much quicker LB corps than last year. BYU should be in the backfield early and often. The running backs won’t get the space they need to run and BYU will keep them well under their average again.

As for the 5 reasons Air Force will win:

1. Sean Carney will pass for a ton of yards: Doubt it. Last year he only completed 2 pass attempts and was mostly ineffective against BYU’s defense which is looking to only improve on last years performance, this time at home. Air Force only completed 46% of passes against defenses expecting the run. Without that gimmick, Carney really needs to improve his accuracy or he will be in for a long game/season.

2) AF will win the kicking game with an outstanding Punter and Kicker: Whittingham? Is that you? In all seriousness, if you are relying on your special teams to win the game, you should be worried.

3) We tend to play well in September, before a grinding Academic and Military schedule take their toll: I have to agree with this part, AFA does play its best football at the beginning of the year.

4) Defense won’t be as passive as in the past: Will it matter? BYU will have played 2 BCS conference teams and Tulsa by now, the offense should be clicking. Of the 4 games, Air Force will have either the worst or second to worst defense of the all.

5) Pregame flyby will rattle BYU players: While it would be great, I don’t know if they do that at away games. Either way, Air Force players will be much more rattled by 65,000 screaming fans.

My 3 Cents: BYU cruises. It is always a tough game against Air Force because of their tenacity, but the offense will be too much and the defense will be more stifling than last year. It will be the first game at home since Arizona and, if BYU is undefeated at this point, the first opportunity for a grateful fan base to see their highly ranked team. Id say BYU wins in a similar fashion as last year with a 2+ touchdown advantage.

OK, I thought I’d hang it up for the summer, but I just can’t, dangit!

I’m liking the football recruiting news that I’m seeing these days. It hasn’t taken long for recruits to see that BYU is on a huge upswing right now and that they better get on board if they want to be a part of the magic coming in the next few years.

Some random stuff:

A few weeks ago, I was on vacation with my wife and daughter in Mesa, AZ. We went down for my buddy Jake’s graduation from ASU. Jake had a party at his house that night and I got to meet Max Hall’s dad, who greeted me by asking if I was Shirts (sweet!). Somebody tipped him off to the blog and he was wondering who the heck I was. Anyway, we got to talking and it turns out that the Halls lived about 5 houses down from me while I lived there! Crazy, huh? The reason I never knew them personally was that Max is seven years younger than me–he would have been 10 when I graduated from high school and moved to Utah. They totally remembered my little sister that came over to play, though.

On the same trip, I grabbed me a used copy of NCAA 07 for the PS2 (I can’t stand buying games new). Been having fun reliving what should have been an undefeated football season last year (thanks again, Justin Robinson). Playing the game has done two things for me. First, it’s tiding me over very well during the dog days of no football. Second, it’s totally priming me for the coming season. That’s right, I’m getting more excited for the coming season without having the “I can’t wait any longer!” feeling that usually comes with it. I don’t know if that makes sense, but it’s a fantastic state of mind that I highly recommend. Get out your video games and feast, friends!

I also have a question to put to any of you who might be web-tech-savvy: I’m looking for a good hosting provider and have a few companies that I’m looking at. If any of you out there have had any experience with a web hosting company that you’d recommend, let me know.

Now that I know I can’t stay away from the site, start checking in on a weekly basis for news and opinions on recruiting and other BYU sports happenings. I’ve got a good interview in the works, so stay tuned…

I got behind with all the recruiting news last week and did not post a fan breakdown. The good news, however, is that now when I post the Utah breakdown it will be time for Fall camp.

This game kicks off BYU’s conference season and a welcome return home from two consecutive away games. Air Force comes into town for a September 22nd show-down at LES.

Thanks to THUD for this breakdown:

Air Force

1. O line has to be mentally tough and play a physical game. The projected starting tackles didn’t get much playing time this Spring after sustaining injuries, but both of them should be back to full strength in the fall. There isn’t much depth here in terms of experience and we are going to have to have some younger players step up in the event that one of the starters is out with a serious injury. I don’t think there is a lack of talent or experience with the projected starters, but the coaching staff has challenged them all to have a more agrressive style of play and be mentally tough by playing with the pain.

2. The TBs have depth and Jim Ollis is going to have an incredible year. Chad Hall is recovering nicely from his surgery and will be a major weapon running and catching the ball. Ryan Williams is an exceptional athlete at FB and will be a critical element in the one back scheme you will see. He will be coming off a surgery to his shoulder, but I don’t think it will slow him down at all for the fall. Look for Scott Peeples to be the Dozer FB in the Power I formation comin at ya.

3. WRs are now a critical factor in the offensive attack of the Falcons, I think we have enough talent here to get the job done, but there is going to have to be one of them who removes himself from the pack to show he is the “Go to guy!”

4. If there is one position on the O that will make you stop and take notice of their direct impact on the success of the TEAM moving the ball and scoring, it will be the TEs. Yes the FALCONS will be using their TEs for more than blocking assignments. I think we have seen dramatic results in these players being coached up and there will be excitement watching them produce.

5. QB, well I think you know enough about Shaun Carney to know that he will be performing in a system that will allow him to exploit all his talents, especially his throwing arm. If the O Line stands strong and gives him the minimum amount of time he needs to fire off his quick strikes, we will be in business. Jim Ollis will remain a factor as a backup, but we had several younger players show they can lead the TEAM and are very capable athletes running and throwing the ball.

6. On D there is a lot of excitement about the line being very strong with talent and experience. With the number of injuries the FALCONS had last year there were a bunch of younger players who had to fill in the gaps and they did a great job doing so. Keep an eye on the development of #55 Ryan Gonzales, if he plays like he looks, he will be an impact player. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Noah Garguile moved to NG if his recovery from surgeries continues to progress nicely.

7. I don’t think there can be any arguement that Drew Fowler is one of the best ILBs in the MWC and I think he will have several very talented partners to play beside come game day. I see the most dramatic improvement on D at OLB. Julian Madrid brings an aggressive style of play that is coupled with speed. Look for him to be spending his share of time being one of the players in the attack packages thrown at QBs. John Rabold is a big, quick and mobile OLB who is going to cause a great deal of disruption and will be strong on run D.

8. The FALCON secondary is going to rely on the outstanding athletic play of #34 Chris Thomas and the experience and leadership of Bobby Giannini. The FALCON corners are going to be challenged early and often and the players who are fighting for starting positions in the fall are going to have to show they are willing to play an in your face type of ball and deliver teeth rattling hits. Garrett Rybak brings the experience at this position, but I think there has to be someone playing that position who decides he is going to become the “hitman”! We need a CB who has the athletic ability to be in good positon and delivers blows that make a WR worry too much about the hit and not making the catch.

9. Special teams play is going to be improved to the point where they are once again a significant weapon in the ability of the FALCONS to score and prevent the opposition from scoring. Ryan Harrison’s leg is a weapon, period end of story. His abilities will be the deciding factor in at least two AF victories this year, one of which will be over a team they aren’t supposed to beat.

10. The Coaching staff for the FIGHTIN’ FALCONS is untested in its leadership of the FALCONS, but that aren’t untested in the leadership skills they learned as players under Coach Deberry and they bring a wealth of coaching experience to the table. I will make the bold prediction that within three years, they will be considered to be the most dynamic staff in the MWC.

For the FALCONS to be an 8-4 or 7-5 team this year and have a huge upset win over a BYU, TCU or ND, the offensive line and the defensive secondary have to find a way to WIN in their respective assignments. I think the offensive line will meet that demand for several different reasons, but I think the biggest factor for their success is that their positon coach is going to draw every ounce of talent they have at of them and demand they play like warriors. My biggest concern is with the defensive secondary. They have to not buy into the hype they aren’t good enough to run with the Big Dogs. When they are out matched by pure athletic ability, and yes they will be, they have to become vicious in how they provide punishment for every yard gained. If the FALCON corners play the game with no regard for their own personal well being, they will help their brothers win football games.

5 Reasons AFA will win (thanks to AFAfan)

1) Sean Carney will pass for a ton of yards.
2) AF will win the kicking game with an outstanding Punter and Kicker.
3) We tend to play well in September, before a grinding Academic and Military schedule take their toll.
4) Defense won’t be as passive as in the past.
5) Pregame flyby will rattle BYU players.

My 3 Cents: The rebuttal won’t come until Thursday because “On the Road with Cruiser” will be appearing tomorrow.