“Will this defense cause more turnovers than last year? And can that make up for such a young offense now that Beck & Brown are gone?-Anonymous”

To establish a benchmark, we need to understand 2006. By the end of the season BYU was ranked #4 in the country in the turnover margin. BYU lost a total of 4 fumbles all season and tied for #18 with 9 passes intercepted. That is a grand total of 13 turnovers in the season, 1 a game. BYU was tied for #74 with 9 fumbles recovered and tied at #12 with 18 interceptions for a grand total of 27. That equals a +1.08 turnover margin on the season, really quite impressive.

Who caused these turnovers and are they coming back?

Returning player interceptions: 7 (Not including Matangi Tonga)
Graduated player interceptions: 8

Returning player forced fumble/recoveries: 8/6
Graduated player forced fumble/recoveries: 0/3

These numbers are surprising. They show that most turnovers were caused and recovered by players that will be on this year’s team. It doesn’t take into account the fact that most of the players that graduated were starters and therefore had a greater opportunity to cause/recover a turnover.

Will as many turnovers be caused?

The three main elements of most turnovers, beyond dumb luck, are:
1. Being where the other team doesn’t expect you to be: Blitzing is one of the most effective ways to create turnovers. Missed blocks on a incoming LB or a safety being where the QB didn’t expect him is a key ingredient in taking the ball away. Just ask Jeff Ballard (1:41 into the video.) BYU’s returning defensive players tallied 10 of 11 quarterback hurries last year. With a year of experience more and faster ILBers, I think this number will only increase. Reports from spring practice say the blitzing scheme’s added to the defense were tough for the offense, this only bodes well for increasing the number of turnovers next year.
2. Sticking to your assignment: If a OLB is blitzing, the rest of the team has to make sure they are sticking to their assignments. Overpursuit not only can create big plays, but also means they aren’t there to make the play when the quarterback makes a bad decision. BYU’s defense improved vastly in this area last year and the result was some easy turnovers.
3. Good tackling: There is nothing that separates a player from the ball faster than a well-placed hit. BYU’s focus over the summer last season paid off, it will only get getter as the players get faster and stronger.

Now to the offensive side of the ball. BYU did not turn the ball over last year very much for two main reasons: John Beck and Curtis Brown. Beck only threw 8 interceptions all season to his 32 passing touchdowns. He was accurate, with the second highest passing efficiency rating (169.1) in the country and completing nearly 70% of his throws. I have looked everywhere but cannot find an official statistic for how many fumbles Curtis Brown had. I cannot remember any from the 2006 season. Brown had an iron grip on the ball and simply did not fumble, a very important part of the positive turnover margin.

Can the defense, which will probably do better in total number of turnovers, make up for the young offense?

No.

Fui Vakapuna and Manase Tonga both fumbled several times during this last season. Fui tends to carry the ball away from his body so he can hit people and sometimes loses the ball. Hopefully this is being addressed but in the end it is very likely the number of fumbles will increase. The number of interceptions is also very likely to increase. The spread offense is based a lot of chemistry and timing. If the receiver does not break when the quarterback thought he would the ball is up for grabs. Max Hall has a long ways to get the timing and trust that John Beck had with his receivers. If he works as hard as Beck during this whole summer, the number of interceptions is likely to be in the low teens. Hall is also more aggressive and likes to thread the needle which may also lead to more turnovers. If Hall goes down, Gaskins has no spring practice to fall back on and likely will throw some unfortunate passes.

My 3 Cents: BYU will probably have a decent ranking in the turnover margin (mid 20s is my guess) next season because while the offense will turn the ball over more often, the defense will probably get the ball themselves more often due to increased speed, better understanding of the defense, more experience, and the new wrinkles in the zone blitzes.

I just want to thank all of the Boise State fans searching for stuff about their team that have landed on our site. They’ve boosted my traffic stats very nicely the past few days. Thanks, Spudheads!

Question I received on another post:
“Keep going. Good stuff. What are odds we go undefeated this fall?-Anonymous

Great question actually, something all BYU fan’s have deep inside their head. It was hard after the 2005 season to even contemplate a good 2006. With a 10-game winning streak, this year it is a little easier to dream of, and hope for, a perfect season. This question is deeper than it seems: Will BYU go to a BCS bowl this year? Could
they possibly be National Champions?

As mentioned in the heading of the blog, I’m really not a math whiz. In fact, I haven’t taken a real math class since my sophomore year of high school. That being said, my “odds” won’t be mathematically correct, but I think my logic will be.

Anyways, Ill break it down by game:

Arizona(H): I think BYU wins this one in a close game. Arizona is implementing a new offense that BYU defense is very familiar with. The offensive line of UA is young and will still be getting use to the new splits. The QB and WR’s will need to have near perfect execution if they want to sustain long drives against BYU defense at home. UA has a very good defense and Hall will definitely have his work cut out for him. I’d give BYU a 60% chance of winning.

UCLA(A): Toughest game of the season. On the road at the Rose Bowl against a ranked team. However, Im not as convinced that the 20 returning starters are going to dominate the game. UCLA only finished with a 7-6 record, including a loss in their bowl game. Their win over USC, while a huge win, wasn’t really that spectacular. It was a pretty ugly game for both teams. I hope Ben Olson is the starting QB so BYU can show him what he missed out on. JJ DiLuigi mentioned in an interview he already has the UCLA game circled on his calendar, I hope he gets to see the field to make a mark. BYU 40% chance of winning, I think the road game this early will be too much.

Tulsa(A): New coach, same outcome. I think BYU rolls over Tulsa again. This game will be closer, but BYU will still come out by a couple touchdowns. BYU has a 80% chance of winning.

Air Force(H): Air Force has a new coach and a new mentality. Sadly, I don’t think they are going to do very well this year. The guys on the team were all brought in for an option offense and they aren’t quite the right personnel for this new passing attack. They also lose their edge of being the only option attack that most teams will see all year so most defenses, not just BYU, will be more effective against them. BYU has a 80% chance of winning.

New Mexico(A): This game could be a surprise for BYU, but I believe Bronco will have BYU ready to play. BYU has the bottom half of the conference on the road and the top half at home, good scheduling. BYU has a 65% chance of winning.

UNLV(A): BYU rolls. 3rd string RBs and Gaskins will score. BYU has a 90% chance of winning.

Eastern Washington(H): If BYU doesn’t win, I am shaving my head and changing my name to Eastern Washington’s QB’s name (Note: Took me a while to find it, Matt Nichols… Could be worse. I could have said their CB DeNique Ford or RB Toke Kefu.) BYU will win. Period.

San Diego State(A): For their sake, I hope SDSU isn’t bitten by the injury bug again this year. I feel bad that they had to play us last year with their 3rd string QB, 4th string (does that exist?) TE and a dilapidated defense. BYU has a 90% chance of winning.

Colorado State(H): This could be a late season shocker for BYU if they don’t keep their guard up. Kyle Bell is back and will be trying to make amends for his last performance in LES (36 yards.) BYU has a 60% chance of winning.

TCU(H): This is for all the marbles folks. IF BYU and TCU are both undefeated at this point (unlikely but possible) this may be the biggest clash in MWC history: Two top 15 teams at the end of the season. Even if both teams are not undefeated, this will probably determine the MWC champion. BYU has a 60% chance of winning.

Wyoming(A): Again people are using the “lots of starters” returning for Wyoming. Yipee. BYU beat them 55-7 last year, so if they think that bringing those same guys back means they will win, they are in for a rude awakening in Laramie. I think the score will be closer, within 20 points this time. BYU has a 65% chance of winning.

Utah(H): Closer than any of us are comfortable with, but BYU will win convincingly. BYU has a 75% chance of winning this game.

So what does it all mean? Probably not. I see BYU ending the season around 7-5 at worst (Possible losses to UA, UCLA, CSU, TCU, Utah and 1 surprise) and as good as 10-2 if Hall is as good as advertised. This team will probably stumble as some point because of the loss of senior leaders. Hopefully Bronco can keep them focused enough that the stumble lasts 1 game, not a stretch.

My 3 Cents: 2009 is the year the stars align. I would say 2008, but we lose a lot of defensive starters (Kehl, Nixon, Gabriel, Gooch, Criddle to be exact.) In 2008 BYU will be very good, but probably not BCS busting good. 2009 we play Notre Dame among others, Hall is a Senior, Austin is all the way back, Jacobson could be back, JJ DiLuigi and Ryan Kessman will have a couple years under his belt, the Defensive line will be seniors with 3 years starting under their belts. You heard it here first.

Check back tomorrow when I tackle another reader question: “Will this defense cause more turnovers than last year? And can that make up for such a young offense now that Beck & Brown are gone?”

The practice fields have fallen silent since Spring Football ended, leaving the world of BYU football fandom without daily news reports. No more balloon-gates. No more stories of Gooch cracking someone in “non-contact” drills. No more gravity defying leaps by George or Pitta. BYU football players are even trying their best to get through finals week and mentally prepared for summer voluntary work-outs. It is a time for the newly annointed King of BYU Football, Mr. Max Hall, to step up and take control of the team.

Today I am going to be reviewing the defense by position and whether I think it will be better or worse than 2006’s #10 scoring defense (14.7 pts a game)and #16 pass efficiency defense(106.23), one of the best in BYU history.

Defensive Line:

I wrote a whole article about this recently, but I think the defensive line will be the oil that keeps this defensive machine working smoothly. Ian Dulan, Jan Jorgensen and Russell Tialavea are all sophmores and ready to get into the backfield this coming season. Tialavea gets a great push and had two blocked kicks last year. There are more than adequate back-ups in Brett Denney, Judd Anderton, and Mark Fitu.

Best player: Jan Jorgensen. A leader of this very young group, Jorgensen does a great job getting into the backfield. He should lead the group in tackles for a second year in a row.

Suspect: NT. Russell Tialavea is good, but this position is one injury away from being manned by a walk-on. Hopefully, BYU can get Brian Soi, a NFL quality NT that is currently at UVSC getting his associates. Once he gets his degree, BYU can then work on getting him to fall practice.

Injuries: Judd Anderton is out with a torn labrum, should be back for fall.

Linebackers:

Hands down the best and deepest position on the team currently. Returning 2 starters and 2 guys with significant playing time, they are ready to knock some heads. Bryan Kehl and David Nixon are a very quick tandem. Nixon was held out of spring camp from a lingering groin injury but will be participating in the summer and fall. These two are fast enough to play coverage and strong enough for the pass rush. Kelly Poppinga and Mark Staffieri will be replacing the General and Wagner, the two leading tackler’s on last years team. Poppinga and Staffieri aren’t as big as the other two, but are much quicker.
The 4 projected starters combined for 186 tackles and 8 sacks last year. With the new blitzing schemes, this number should be much higher this season. This group will be the dominating playmakers on defense and should help keep the momentum in BYU’s favor. The back-ups are very talented as well, including Chris Bolden, Austen Jorgensen, Matt Bauman, Jaden Wagner, Shawn Doman, Terrance Hooks, Dan Van Sweden, Grant Nelson and several others.

Best Player: Bryan Kehl. He is emerging as a leader of the defense and has the skills to back it up. I was sitting next to Lark the day after his freak injury and Kehl came over to check up on him and see how he was doing. Kehl will be a 1st team MWC and possibly garner some national praise if he can have big games against UA and UCLA to start the season.

Suspect: Hard to say at this position. Staffieri worries me because of lingering injuries, but should be more than healthy for fall.

Injuries: David Nixon (groin), Austen Jorgensen (labrum), and Markell Staffieri (ready to particiapte for summer.)

Defensive Backs:

Coach Jaime Hill turned 2005’s suspect defense into the best suprise of 2006. The secondary had to play on its toes the whole game as the offense often scored so quickly teams abandoned their game plans and began slinging the ball across the field. Only one starter graduated (Justin Robinson CB) and there is still a battle going for his position. Robinson actually had a great year and led the team in interceptions. However, his size made him a bit of a liability (5′7.5) so I think we will all feel a little better with Kayle Buchannon, Brandon Bradley or someone taller playing field corner. Gooch quietly had the most tackles of all the DB’s last year (66) while Criddle had an impressive 47 solo tackles. Criddle was great at run-support and often got in the way of passes. He let a couple INT’s slip through his hands and hopefully has taken his down time to practice with a JUGS machine. The safeties Quinn Gooch and Dustin Gabriel, both are returning starters and are both very reliable and talented. Gooch is rumored to be establishing himself as a leader on the defense, which is a good thing. Safeties have a good vantage point from their position on the field, hopefully he uses his knowledge and experience to help the defense even more.

Best Player: Ben Criddle. Criddle was a solid tackler and excellent defender last year as a walk-on. Bronco gave him a scholarship over the off-season and he is ready to come back. He led the team last season with 9 pass break-ups. Hopefully this season some of those are INTs instead.

Suspect: Dustin Gabriel. Poor guy is always injured. He may not make it to fall ball if he decides to not risk himself anymore. David Tafuna is the likely back up, though Kellen Fowler is said to be one of the smarter players on the team and could be a good option as well. Honorable mention in this category is Kayle Buchannon who is always injured. His hit that knocked Weddle into the runner against Utah shows he is capable of being a very physical corner. Hopefully he can stay healthy.

Injuries: Chris Warner (ACL), Ben Criddle (Toe), Dustin Gabriel (perpetually)

My 3 Cents: The defense will be very good this year. If nothing else, they will be faster and from the reports from Spring, more physical. The new blitzing schemes and wrinkles they threw into the system should give offensive lines fits. I fully expect them to stay within the top 10 scoring defenses (the clock changes mean that they will probably allow more points, as will everyone else.) The defensive line is more experienced and show keep the offensive line in check better to let Nixon and Kehl blow up the back-field.

The comments left thus far have been great, please let me know if you are agreeing with what I’m posting!

After a weekend hiatus to take finals, My 3 Cents is now back in full swing. I believe I found a way to get through these doldrums that enter every college football fan’s life between May and July, so keep checking back. On a side note, you can sign up for the daily updates sent out from this site on the right hand side of the page. Back to football…

This weekend, April 28-29, a bunch of 20-somethings are finally going to get paid for their on-field exploits. What BYU football players are most likely to make a paycheck playing football?

Draft locks

1. Aaron Wagner (6′3, 245 LB): It is too bad Aaron won’t be on the field to play with his brother Jaden who just returned from a mission. Wagner is currently the only Cougar that is guaranteed to play professional football: He was drafted before the 2006 season by the Toronto Argonauts as the 14th overall selection. He was a hot commodity in the CFL because each team is required to have half their roster be “non-import” (their wording, not mine.)

2. John Beck (6′2, 215 QB): Beck has slowly solidified himself as a top 5 QB, with many saying he is likely to go as the 3rd QB. The talking heads started off with Beck as a top 10 QB and have started to see the writing on the wall (aka opinions of people who will be signing Beck’s paycheck) that he may be a real deal. The main question about John Beck by above mentioned talking heads is his arm strength. Any Cougar fan that watched Beck playing under Crowton will gladly attest that arm strength is the least of the worries. Beck had the second highest ball velocity at the combine which put that to rest (to a degree.) Beck’s ability to execute several different offensive schemes while at BYU will really help come draft day.

Late Rounds/FA

1. Daniel Coats (6′3, 257, TE): Coats is more likely to be drafted of the two TE’s because he fits the mold better of a blocking TE. Coats actually had a much better combine than Harline. He did an amazing 34 lifts on the bench press, more than most offensive linemen. Coats is a great short range target and looks to see time pretty soon as a 3rd TE in short distance situations in the NFL.

2. Johnny Harline (6′4, 248, TE): Harline did not show as well as many expected him to at the Combine. He did 15 bench press reps, the lowest of all TE’s at the combine. After seeing him elude defensive backs all season many BYU fans expected a 40 faster than the 4.9 (4.76 on campus) he posted. Harline will probably be a late day 2 pick, similar to Watkins last year. Teams will have a hard time ignoring his on field accomplishments and may take him as a H-back/TE hybrid as he excels in getting open and making the catch as a short to mid-range receiving threat.

3. Jake Kuresa (6′4, 322, OT): Kuresa surprised many by showing up to BYU’s pro-day trimmer than he played during his 4 years at BYU. The fact he played 4 years at BYU means he will likely be drafted on the second day, it is hard to pass up on a big man that is durable.

4. Eddie Keele (6′5, 312, OT): Keele was a 2 year starter before getting injured during the Boston College game. He worked hard during his rehabilitation time and posted the best bench reps of all draft prospects at 43, a full 3 more than the top 2 at the combine. His injury probably made him drop several rounds, but will still likely be drafted towards the end of day 2 due to his size and strength.

Likely to not be drafted

1. Cameron Jensen (6′2, 230, LB): I have yet to see any mock drafts that list Jensen as being drafted. However, he will probably get a shot at a camp to prove himself. Jensen has the knack to make plays and be around the ball, so hopefully he will make a roster and get to prove himself on special teams.

2. Curtis Brown (6′0, 205, RB): Curtis Brown may be one of the best running backs BYU will ever have, so it’s sad he might never set foot on an NFL field. His ability to make the first tackler miss and iron-grip on the ball make him a good 3rd down option. However, he lacks the elite speed (4.6) to turn heads and struggled against several BCS teams (but had an amazing final romp against Oregon.) He might get a shot to play special teams at the next level or as a change-up back for short yardage situations, but his days as #1 RB are probably over.

3. Justin Robinson (5′7, 160 CB): Did anyone think after the 2005 season he’d even be mentioned as a starter for BYU? Robinson improved greatly for 2006 and led the team in interceptions. His size will make it nearly impossible for him to sniff an NFL field anywhere but the stands, but he posted remarkable 40 times (one was sub 4.3) and a long jump of 10′4. Highly doubt he is even invited to a camp, but you never know.