Apr 30 2007
Fan Breakdown of Arizona: Part II
PArt 2 of the series. Thanks again to AZCATFAN for his report:
Defense:
I won’t go into as much detail on the defensive side as I have read where most knowledgeable cougar fans are aware of AZ’s defense. We lost depending on how you look at it 1 or 2 starters from last year’s team. Gone are Michael Johnson at Strong Safety and Marcus Smith who started at times at DE and DT. Our defense goes into this season with a ton of confidence. Our D held teams to a 19.6 scoring average. In a league like the Pac 10 where offenses seem to rule the day it speaks volumes when you hold your opponent to under 21 points a game. The average scoring this past year was 24.4 in the Pac 10 with all but 2 teams averaging more than 20 points a game. (AZ avg. 16.6 and Stanford avg. 10.6.) Cal and USC led the conference in scoring with averages of 32.8 and 30.5 respectively. USC scored 13 offensive points against AZ and Cal scored 13 as well. (SC had an int for a td and Cal had a punt return for a TD.) Defense was the key last year and it will be this year but, I don’t think it will have to carry the day like it did last year if AZ expected to win.
Defensive line:
The D line is anchored by SR Louis Holmes at 6’6 and 280 anchoring one end spot and JR Jonathan Turner 6’3 250 at the other end spot. The tackles are Seniors 6’1 285 Yaniv Barnett and Lionel Dotson 6’4 278. AZ loves the depth that it has along the line and RS freshman Ricky Elmore 6’5 255 DE (he had 2 sacks and a blocked FG in the 2 spring scrimmages) leads the reserves along with RS Freshman Lolomana Mikaele at DT. Louis Holmes who as most do – took some time adjusting to the speed at the d1 level and should be ready to have the dominating year that most have predicted. This unit as is true with the rest of the defense has quality depth at every position. No BS. Arizona has never had the quality depth that is has now and nowhere is that more true than on defense. AZ will rotate fresh bodies along the DL throughout the whole game so we won’t have the altitude or being tired as an excuse if we happen to lose.
Linebackers:
They all come back and are lead by SR Spencer Larsen and JR Ronnie Palmer. SR Dane Krogstad rounds out the starting 3 but, I would assume as we did last year that Krogstad will be replaced by a 5th DB to cover a wide out. They cover sideline to sideline and are both very sure tacklers. Xavier Kelly and Adrian McCovy will be backups and it would not surprise me if they see plenty of action. I say that because if the altitude is a problem then these are 2 of the guys who will see action. X led the team in tackles this Spring and is biting at the bit to see action. X is a Sophmore and McCovy is a Junior. This group has speed, is experienced, and has quality depth. Arizona is also expecting Apaiata Tuihalamaka an incoming frosh and his cousin Vuna Tuihalamaka a JC transfer to also see action this season.
Secondary:
As many Cougar fans know – the secondary is anchored by Senior Antoine Cason who is up for numerous post season awards and is recognized as one of the best cover corners in the country. On the other side is Senior Wilrey Fontenot. They are backed up by Soph. Devin Ross and JC transfer Marquis Hundley. The safeties are in a battle and heading into Fall – the Strong Safety is a battle between Soph’s Cam Nelson, Brandon Tatum, and Jr Michael Klyce. At Free Safety you have big hitter and a senior Dominic Patrick and his backup JR Nate Ness. One of these safeties will replace Krogstad and be responsible for run support and covering a wr or tight end. As good as it gets and byu with a young qb will have its hands full with this defense.
5 Reasons why I think Arizona beats BYU on September 2nd.
1. Defense, Defense, Defense. We held your running game to a mere 28 yards on 24 carries. I would expect that our defense will be locked in once again to stop your running game and make an inexperienced qb beat us.
2. An inexperienced QB against a very experienced defense. BYU as you know lost its QB, RB, TE, a WR and 1 or 2 (?) OL to graduation [My 3 Cents: Technically only 1 since Keele was injured so early in the season, but 2 great OL did graduate.] You don’t replace that overnight and you certainly don’t replace all of that in the first game. Please do not tell me that the replacements are better than what you had. By the 5th or 6th game maybe – by the first game – highly unlikely. Playing well on the scout team and never getting tackled does not count as experienced. Experience on Arizona’s D will beat inexperience on BYU’s O.
3. Our offense will average closer to the Pac 10 average of 24 points a game and we will hit that average in this game. Last year – Bronco out-coached our OC as he did not blitz and dropped his LB’s into coverage and with the exception of a couple of big plays ruled the day. This year – if he plays 4 LB’s he will be crushed because one or 2 of your LB’s will have to cover a wr and we will exploit the mismatch. Does BYU have 4 guys who can cover our 4 wr’s? I don’t think so – so you will blitz and as you know – that is a high risk high reward against this offense. You also know first hand how difficult it is to get to the qb in this offense. It puts a ton of pressure on your D to step up in the first game and the first time in a long time when your heart and soul – Jensen is not out there to calm everybody down. Can someone else step up – yes? Will he do it in the first game? We will see.
4. New offense. Yes, you know this offense but, you don’t have any film on it and you have no idea what wrinkles Dykes will add. Would not be surprised if Arizona catches BYU in a bad alignment and hits it for a TD. In a game like this – all it takes is one big play to be the difference in the game.
5. I have pretty much covered all the reasons why I think we will win – the last is weak at best but, it is a trend. BYU has lost its last 2 season opening games. BC in 2005 and AZ in 2006 with BC being a home opener. I think the trend continues. To early to make a prediction but, I do like AZ’s offense scoring at least 24 points.
My 3 Cents:
While I don’t agree with a lot of what AZCATFAN says, I do like his logic and that he backs up his arguments with outside sources and facts. His final point, that he considers the weakest, I actually think may be one of the stronger points. BYU has not done very well in the first game under Bronco. It seems that Anae is holding back the reins a little too tight and not letting the offense be as explosive as it should be. However, the Oregon game was perhaps a glimpse as to how far the coaching staff has come now in getting ready for games with a longer lay-off in between.
I will be posting my “rebuttal” in a couple days, leave a comment if you want a specific point or question of AZCATFAN to be addressed. Next weeks: UCLA.
My 3 Cent’s will likely not be updated until May 5th as a future Cougar will be born tomorrow. I’m guessing a linebacker or QB based on genetics. I will be sending out tapes to BYU by this weekend, never too early to give them a lead.
2 Responses to “Fan Breakdown of Arizona: Part II”
Great breakdown, he almost had me convinced. Almost… Arizona’s defense was incredible last year, particularily their secondary. The fact they are losing only 1 or 2 starters doesn’t bode well for the Cougars. Max Hall will certainly experience a baptism by fire into Division 1A football, but as strong as they were at Arizona’s stadium last year, BYU’s defense will be much stronger for their opener at home. If BYU doesn’t turn it over, they win.
24 points?!? I wonder what plant in Arizona causes such intense hallucination? UofA won’t score half that against a BYU defense that was and is better than their own.